Thursday 24 August 2017

There's a big reason why the UK may not actually leave the EU


Switch on your TV and some politician, no matter what side of the fence they sit on, will say "the British people voted to leave the EU, and that's what we're going to do". There are Remainer members of the public who say "we accept the result of the referendum and we have to abide by it". But deep inside the minds of many, there is a profound sense of having made a terrible mistake. As every day passes, more and more articles in the mainstream press, including even the most rabidly fervent pro-Brexit papers, are appearing, containing bad news on the UK's withdrawal from the EU. 

This is to me a sign that most newspapers, including the vitriolically parochial Express and the excrescent Mail, didn't really believe the UK was going to actually go through with voting to leave the EU, but had found a niche in propagating xenophobic lies for profit, and now they have fulfilled their readers' wishes, they don't quite know which way to go and seem to be hedging their bets... added to this is a fightback by the readers - lots of replies to articles expressing regret, apportioning blame and venting anger. Here, I list some recent articles to make my point:


This article from the Mail admitting that Brexit is not yielding the bounty it was supposed to:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/comment/article-4784688/The-Brexiteers-lost-economic-argument.html


This article, with a link to The Spectator, detailing how the chief director of the Leave campaign admits to lying to achieving his goal:
http://www.europeanscom.eu/leave-director-admitted-the-brexit-referendum-was-won-by-lying-to-the-public/


Business Insider reports that the promise of more manufacturing jobs is also not true:
http://www.businessinsider.de/commerzbanks-peter-dixon-on-uk-manufacturing-after-brexit-2017-8?r=UK&IR=T


Prospect Magazine has an interesting piece on how civil servants have told the government that the UK will have to choose between the US and EU trade models as it is too small and insignificant to set up its own (it seems to have sided with the EU, unless Liam Fox has his way):
https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/government-ecj-paper-european-britain


There's this piece from the Telegraph, of all places, suggesting immigration figures were exaggerated:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/08/23/immigration-figures-review-new-checks-suggest-numbers-far-lower/

The Daily Mail also reports this:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4819922/Net-migration-Britain-100-000-LOWER.html
It's OK to report these things after having voted to leave the EU - nice bit of track-covering: when Brexit blows up in everyone's faces, they can say proudly, "we told you so!" (whatever the situation).


We also have a surprise entry from Putin's mouthpiece, RT, who want to inform us that people have started to regret their decisions:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ABD-EZLVeRs


This BBC report talks about the exodus of foreign workers and the reluctance of many to go to the UK to work:
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-41036236


It is backed up by this Reuters report:
http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-economy-food-idUKKCN1B32Q1


The Financial Times argues that giving up influence in Europe will not enhance influence elsewhere:
https://www.ft.com/content/d9e595d0-8750-11e7-bf50-e1c239b45787


This article from Pound Sterling Live says in a very discreet and indirect way that the pound is not going to go too much lower against the Euro (currently €1.09 to £1.00) because J.P. Morgan says it looks like hard Brexit is not going to happen (they even lower their odds from 25% to 15% on the chances):
https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/gbp-live-today/7363-gbp-to-eur-and-usd-forecast-update-jp-morgan


Here, we see the Pound Sterling as reported in the Independent, as the worst-performing of all major currencies:
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/uk-economy-growth-q2-2017-half-eurozone-eu-europe-second-quarter-a7909706.html


OK, the Guardian is the most pro-EU of all the papers, but it has this interesting editorial where, reading between the lines, it seems the government has given up on its hard Brexit wishlist:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/aug/23/the-guardian-view-on-uk-brexit-policy-this-time-the-lady-is-for-turning


This one from the Welsh Daily Post concerns the effects of Brexit that are already biting:
http://www.dailypost.co.uk/business/business-news/axe-threat-nearly-100-workers-13513704


These are just some of the articles reporting the slow demise of Brexit. There are also many books, speeches and reports by all types of experts, professionals and those in business claiming Brexit is gradually being dumped:

This book is especially poignant:
https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B06Y15DBTG/ref=dp-kindle-redirect?_encoding=UTF8&btkr=1

It is called "Brexit, No Exit: Why Britain (in the End) Won't Leave Europe" by Denis MacShane, and it goes into detail about how the UK (and the West in general) reached the point of protectionism and anti-globalisation but this may be just a blip.


All-in-all, it is slowly but surely becoming clear to many people that the promises made last summer to the people of the United Kingdom were based on blatant lies, false premises and pipe dreams in an attempt to make the common man and woman vote to leave the European Union without realising the full ramifications. The government is going through the motions to make it seem they are still going ahead with it, but it is becoming more and more unlikely - impossible even - by the day.

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