Eurovision: final predictions

I've calmed down a bit since my last article, but I'm still not going to pass final judgement until later this evening, when the winner is finally announced. Anyway, I wanted to at least provide my predictions, considering I've been right about the eventual winner since 1997. Modesty apart, of course... Admittedly, it depends on the performance (and camera angles) on the night, but generally beforehand there are several telltale signs. My senses are immediately attracted to the quality of the songs in the middle-end of the draw:

Starting with Sweden's The Ark, singin "The Worrying Kind", another Euro-Scandi-Cliché of the blandest order, I think it kicks off the section where the winner will sprout from, simply because the following songs and the order they're in will either make the viewer slowly wish to switch off or prepare the viewer for what's to come. After that, Les Fatals Picards, France's best chance for decades, singing "L'amour à la Française", even breaking with tradition and singing partly in English, will appeal to a lot of the madder ones out there.

However, then the area most likely to produce a winner begins - Latvia's wonderful "Questa Notte", a romantic neo-classical number with a great deal of charm and sophistication. Following them there's Russia's sassy Serebro, with "Song #1", which of course will do well, firstly because the Russian diaspora vote will guarantee them a handful of 8, 10 and 12-pointers, especially from the Baltic countries, Belarus, Ukraine and probably Bulgaria, and secondly because they're t.A.T.u. in disguise, and a lot more sophisticated.

Following on Russia's coattails is Germany. Roger Cicero's "Frauen Regier'n Die Welt" is another typically original German entry. Germany has nearly always received a vote from me because they put out such original numbers, but nobody gives them enough credit. Last year's country & western song by Texas Lightning only got them to 14th spot. Three years ago Max's "Can't Wait Until Tonight" managed them a creditable 8th position. In 2000, "Wadde Hadde Duda Da" (yes, that WAS the title) by Stefan Raab, who is still very popular in Germany, came 5th and the year before in Israel, "Journey To Jerusalem" came 3rd. Guildo Horn's "Guildo Hat Euch Lieb", with his manic act, came 7th in Birmingham in 1998. All-in-all, quite a lot of good finishes, but never the Big One. Well, this year, Roger Cicero has a belter of a song and I hope he gets a top-5 finish.

I don't think he'll win, because up next is "Molitva", by Marija Šerifovic, is a simple song, sung by a simple woman in ordinary clothes, but it is, like every year, another wondersong from Serbia. Definitely top-5 if sung well. But even SHE might not win, because the following song is Ukraine's Verka Serduchka, with "Dancing Lasha Tumbai", which sounds like "Russia Goodbye", and might be a subliminal message, but the song is so awfully kitsch, that such in-your-face nonsense is surely going to go high.

Out of the Big Four, the UK's group of pseudo-kitsch trolley dollies, pretending to be cabin crew, will stand out like a piece of horse manure on a dinner table, coming just after Ukraine. Their "Flying The Flag (For You)" won the UK finals when Terry Wogan, God Bless Him, announced the wrong act, which I personally think should have gone through. Maybe he tried to fix it because even HE was embarrassed by it.

A little further on near the end is Bulgaria's "Water", a drum-banging acoustic arrangement which should feature highly.

A special mention goes out to Hungary's Magdi Rúzsa, singing in 8th position. Her delightful "Unsubstantial Blues" is my second-favourite of the night but I don't tip her for the top-5 (but I hope I'm wrong) because she's singing too early, and with all the weirdos and entertainers packed into the 12th to 18th position, I can't see Europe's new short concentration-span viewers remembering back that far. Unfortunately.

Another not-so-special mention goes to Belarus (who will receive top marks from Russia). The boy thinks a lot of himself. He says he looks like Princess Diana, and his act is cool. In my opinion his James Bond act is a great big steaming pile of doodoo and his cheap backing singers, who look like his hair and make-up assistants (and to save a proper costly talent search probably are). I hope his song nosedives. In 3rd position, he's likely to get few heavy scores, but I think he'll still scrape into next year's event without going into the semi-finals. But I hope I'm wrong.

So, summing up, my top 5 are (in no particular order) Russia, Ukraine, Latvia, Serbia and Bulgaria or Georgia. Note the geographical position of these countries. One worry I have is that some of the more original songs will not make it forward far enough to encourage future diversity, simply because of their lack of friends. Anyway, my other slight worry is that one of the tacky rubbishy numbers will win because of the diaspora vote. I hope not, because Eurovision lovers, some of whom I know, are already preparing to boycott the competition if that occurs.

The quality is high this year, very high. The bar has been raised. I just hope it doesn't get knocked off by some witless politics. But the mouth-watering prospect of seeing Lordi present the trophy to Verka Serduchka is making me itchy!